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2559727 2010 年 12 月 08 日 18:18 Reading (loading. ..) Comments (2) Category: life-long learning
--- not only their own interests is important, as important as the interests of others. To try to take into account the interests of others involved in the game if both sides are so considered, the two sides will reach an optimal balance. Each of us consider their own interests,
ecco shoes online, the absolute only to consider the issue from their own, things are bad, but for the individual is not the worst, the two sides will reach a suboptimal equilibrium, Prisoner's Dilemma. So what is it worst? It goes without saying, a huge gap between the two sides are usually unacceptable.
1. soldiers with your insurance. \Carthage was a war of revenge against Roman times, the Carthaginians got the upper hand,
ecco shoes clearance, the Roman defensive strength is not enough, but they have a natural advantage. Hannibal prepared to attack Rome, he had two options, one of Rome over the terrible steep natural barrier of the Alps to surprise, the price is because the snow would lose half of the troops, if the Romans defensive encounter the Alps, the whole army capsize; Second, the mainland by a flat frontal attack Rome, met in Rome will lose half their defensive strength. Roman generals have two options, defensive flat road, if Hannibal go from here, will blow away half the strength of the enemy, if you do not go from here, Hannibal will be consuming a lot of snow blocking force; defense of the Alps, if Hanni Stubbs go the other way, will be defeated Hannibal positive. OK, do not know if there is no clear, we think from the perspective of Hannibal, how to choose? Rome, regardless of how the defense, must be attacked from the flat road, this can save at least half the troops. Command of the Roman army who are not fools, they just thought,
ecco shoes sale, Hannibal will go flat road, who braved the risk of completely annihilated the Alps to climb over it impassable. Hannibal is different from ordinary people is that he stood between the Roman general point of view, taking into account the Roman general would guess he is about the choices, so they will be defensive flat road. So history is such a place, and Hannibal crossing the Alps lost half of the troops, surprise Rome,
ecco shoes uk, 16 years to kill the Romans over and over looking teeth. Hannibal in the game, select the disadvantages of learning strategy, but he is a natural rival in the analysis of optimal policy decisions made after the adventure. This is called in game theory in the weak inferior choice, it is definitely a disadvantage in the case of the inevitable strategy of the opponents the best choice.
--- when we are absolutely adverse circumstances, and must clearly understand that the choice of opponents, do not fear loss, rejections, will enable us to minimize the probability of loss.
2. multi-transposition. A game, more than 300 students in the classroom, each person randomly selected from a 1-100 number, select the number ultimate choice closest to the average number of all 2 / 3 of people will get $ 5 reward. If we are one of them, how to choose? License plate or to vote for election call?
This is a lot of other people to consider the choice of policy issues, the problem of pure empathy. OK, start the analysis, first of all> the number 67 can be removed, unless everyone chooses 100,67 will be the final answer, then we'd choose 67, then the average should be smaller than 67, so> 67 figure certainly does not appear, select the number of 67 or more an absolute disadvantage. Continue, if we are smart, then this game becomes selected from 1-67, then we can get more than 67 2 / 3 is> 45, the number has become useless, and 45 30,> 20,> 16, \then the answer would be 1. But what is absolutely rational God, Ma? Computers, people are emotional drops ..
multi-transposition of the premise that he is not the first reason,
ecco mens shoes, but also what their opponent is rational, but also know the reason opponents know his opponent is rational that he is rational. Hard to pronounce it? This is an infinite loop, this is called common knowledge in philosophy. (Plug: according to human thinking all the problems are just assumed that philosophy is generated from here, to study all the science will eventually go philosophy, does not explain all the magic of the doors.)
then choose a person is not to win it? (Yale University students are very smart, probably more than half of the people chose 1) is not the case, said the first choice for> 67,> 45> 30 .... how people are going on, maybe They easily filled, but also a possibility --- they are very smart, they know that other people might be \Select more than one, the fact that the final answer will be greater than 1 (who is a potential general Hannibal?). the rest is their incomplete information, they need to research the number of luck in the end close to a few.
final results of this test is 13 2 / 3 = 9, because the number of people choose to emotional to pull the average of 9 from 1, the answer is different each year. This experiment can be accounted reasonable man test the proportion of the crowd, I guess in the entertainment, this number is likely close to 50.
3. of equal skill. Having so much, we do it again the experiment above, many do you choose? Most of the students choose the number has certainly not more than 9, and probably will be the average of between 2-5. Why is this so? Because everyone we play this game, but also the other students also know how to play this game well, but also know that other students know that they know they know .... this is the game, both knowledge level, including thinking and information contrast. If the game both sides have a high level of knowledge to all understand that they are sophisticated, but also what their opponent is very cunning, tough opponents also know that they know their cunning, and so on .... Two teams of companies with professional think-tank game , its complexity is much higher than a company and individual clients in their own thinking game level ... 360 and Tencent fierce battle of wits between each other, but they will not consider the user so much.
4. common knowledge. We want to distinguish between common knowledge and mutual knowledge. Two people face to face with the same hat, only to see the color of each hat, but do not see the color of his hat. We can only say that \Zi Feiyu know that the fish is happy --- mutual knowledge, assuming that we can feel the happiness of fish, we can say that children of non-Seoul, Seoul know that the fish do not know music, I fish the middle is common knowledge. Although the hat is really pink, but the mutual knowledge and common knowledge, there are differences between the.
------------------------- scary dividing line -----------------
too many words are always very scary also a test of patience, or your own records it ~ of course the people here should give candy out ~
theory with practice to make theory more robust. In the company or unit in question is a complex relationship, but the theory can be used here. Changing society we grow, everyone knows that the survival of society point of tricky, I know, my colleagues know, and I know my colleagues know that I know .... typical of similar problems, then how do we choose it ? Follow the trend of it? NO, NO, we know that there are some very good colleagues are innocent, we know that will blindly follow the loss of their own, so we jumped out from it, not to complex interpersonal problems as the focus of life to express themselves, with more wide field of vision. There is a degree of course, is where the trend of environmental assessment.
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