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Old 06-08-2011, 05:39 AM   #1
hijordan41
 
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   一、量价关系
  量价关系的类型分为两大类。一类是常见的类型,即低量低价、量增价平、量增价涨、量缩价涨、量增价跌和 量缩价跌等六种;另一类是比较特殊的类型,即地量地价、天量天价、无量空涨、无量阴跌、底部放量和顶部对倒 等六种。
  1、低量低价
  低量低价主要是指个股(或大盘)成交量非常稀少的同时、个股股价也非常低的一种量价配合现象。低量低价 一般只会出现在股票长期底部盘整的阶段。
  当股价从高位一路下跌后,随着成交量的明显减少,股价在某一点位附近止跌企稳,并且在这一点位上下,进 行长时间的低位横盘整理。经过数次反复筑底以后,股价最低点也日渐明朗,同时,由于量能的逐渐萎缩至近期最 低值,从而使股票的走势出现低量低价的现象。
  低量低价的出现,只是说明股价阶段性底部形成的可能性大大增强,而不能作为买入股票的依据。投资者还应 在研究该股基本面是否良好、否具有投资价值等情况后,才能做出投资决策。
  2、量增价平
  量增价平主要是指个股(或大盘)在成交量增加的情况下、而个股的股价却几乎维持在一定价位水平上下波动 的一种量价配合现象。量增价平既可以出现在上升行情的各个阶段,也可以出现在下跌行情的各个阶段之中。同时 ,它既可以作为卖出股票的信号,也可以作为买人股票的信号。区别买卖信号的主要特征,是要判断“量增价平” 中的“价”是高价还是低价。
  如果股价在经过一段时间比较大的涨幅后、处在相对高价位区时,成交量仍在增加,而股价却没能继续上扬, 呈现出高位量增价平的现象,这种股价高位放量滞涨的走势,表明市场主力在维持股价不变的情况下,可能在悄悄 地出货。因此,股价高位的量增价平是一种顶部反转的征兆,一旦接下来股价掉头向下运行,则意味着股价顶部已 经形成,投资者应注意股价的高位风险。
  如果股价在经过一段比较长时间的下跌后、处在低价位区时,成交量开始持续放出,而股价却没有同步上扬, 呈现出低位量增价平的现象,这种股价低位放量滞涨的走势,可能预示着有新的主力资金在打压建仓。一旦接下来 股价在成交量的有效配合下掉头向上,则表明股价的底部已经形成,投资者应密切关注该股。
  3、量增价涨
  量增价增主要是指个股(或大盘)在成交量增加的同时、而个股的股价也同步上涨的一种量价配合现象。量增 价涨只出现在上升行情中,而且大部分是出现在上升行情的初期,也有小部分是出现在上升行情的中 途。
  在经过前期一轮较长时间的下跌和底部盘整后,市场中逐渐出现诸多利好因素,这些利好因素增强了市场预期 向好的心理、刺激了股市的需求,市场交换逐渐活跃起来。随着成交量的放大和股价的同步上升,投资者购买股票 短期内就可获得利润,赚钱的示范效应激起了更多投资者的投资意愿。
  随着成交量的逐渐放大,股价也开始缓慢向上攀升,股价走势呈现量增价增的态势,这种量价之间的良好配合 ,对未来股价的进一步上扬,形成了真实的实质性支撑。
  4、量缩价涨
  量缩价涨主要是指个股(或大盘)在成交量减少的情况下、个股的股价却反而上涨的一种量价配合现象。量缩 价涨多出现在上升行情的末期,有一小部分也会出现在下降行情中期的反弹过程中。不过,量缩价涨的现象在上升 行情和下降行情中的研判是不一样的。
  在持续的上升行情中,适度的量缩价涨表明主力控盘程度比较高,维持股价上升的实力较强,大量的流通筹码 被主力锁定。但量缩价涨毕竟所显示的是一种量价背离的趋势,因此,在随后的上升过程中出现成交量再次放大的 情况,则可能意味着主力可能在高位出货。
  在持续的下降行情中,有时也会出现量缩价涨的反弹走势。当股价经过短期内的大幅度下跌后,由于跌幅过猛 ,主力没能全部出货,因此,他们会抓住大部分投资者不忍轻易割肉的心理,用少量资金再次将股价拉高,造成量 缩价涨的假象,从而利用这种反弹走势达到出货的目的。
  总之,对于量缩价涨的行情,投资者应区别对待,一般以持股或持币观望为主。
  5、量增价跌
  量增价跌主要是指个股(或大盘)在成交量增加的情况下、个股的股价却反而下跌的一种量价配合现象。量增 价跌现象大部分是出现在下跌行情的初期,也有小部分是出现在上升行情的初期。不过,量增价跌的现象在上升行 情和下降行情中的研判也是不一样的。
  在下跌行情的初期,股价经过一段比较大的涨幅后,市场上的获利筹码越来越多,一些投资者纷纷抛出股票, 致使股价开始下跌。同时,也有一些投资者对股价的走高仍抱有预期,在股价开始下跌时,还在买入股票,多空双 方对股价看法的分歧,是造成股价高位量增价跌的主要原因。不过,这种高位量增价跌的现象持续时间一般不会很 长,一旦股价向下跌破市场重要的支撑位、股价的下降趋势开始形成后,量增价跌的现象将逐渐消失,这种高位量 增价跌现象是卖出信号。
  在上升行情初期,有的股票也会出现量增价跌现象。当股价经过一段比较长时间的下跌和底部较长时间盘整后 ,主力为了获取更多的低位筹码,采取边打压股价边吸货的手段,造成股价走势出现量增价跌现象,但这种现象也 会随着买盘的逐渐增多、成交量的同步上扬而消失,这种量增价跌现象是底部买入信号。
  6、量缩价跌
  量缩价跌主要是指个股(或大盘)在成交量减少的同时、个股的股价也同步下跌的一种量价配合现象。量缩价 跌现象既可以出现在下跌行情的中期,也可能出现在上升行情的中期,但它们的研判过程和结果是不 一样。
  在上升行情中,当股价上升到一定高度时,市场成交量开始减少,股价也随之小幅下跌,呈现出一种量缩价跌 现象,而这种量缩价跌是对前期上升行情的一个主动调整过程,“价跌”是股价主动整理的需求,是为了清洗市场 浮筹和修正较高的技术指标,而“量缩”则表明投资者有很强的持筹信心和惜售心理。当股价完成整理过程后,又 会重新上升。
  在下跌行情中,当股价开始从高位下跌后,由于市场预期向坏,一些获利投资者纷纷出逃,而大多数投资者选 择持币观望,市场承接乏力,因而,造成股价下跌、成交萎缩的量缩价跌现象。这种量缩价跌现象的出现,预示着 股价仍将继续下跌。
  上升行情中的量缩价跌,表明市场充满惜售心理,是市场的主动回调整理,因而,投资者可以持股待涨或逢低 介入。不过,上升行情中价跌的幅度不能过大,否则可能就是主力不计成本出货的征兆。
  下跌行情中的量缩价跌,表明投资者在出货以后不再做“空头回补”,股价还将维持下跌方向,因而,投资者 应以持币观望为主。
  地量地价  股票到达底部后的一个重要标志,庄家吸货不会放量,而是不断的缩量,慢慢吸货,散户在这个 过程中会非常痛苦在不断的缩量过程中事实上是散户以及短线跟风盘不断的丧失信心的过程,直到已经没有多少抛 盘出来,最终成交量就呈现非常低的状态,就是所谓的地量地价的状态了,这个时候要密切注意,一旦出现明显的 K线底部组合,只要没有以外的系统性风险就会展开行情,可以及时追进。
  天量法则  天量法则……一种全新的股市实战法则
    天量法则……一种全新的股市实战法则》
    天量法则主要是以关注突然爆“天量”的股票为切入点。股市有句名言“天量见天价”,投资者往往认为 当一只个股放出天量时,股价基本见顶,有反转的危险。因此投资者往往在某只股票放出天量时果断出局,但是结 局未必和传统经验相一致,这就说明单凭这种直观的经验来预测股价未来的上涨与下跌是不够准确的,实践已证明 了这一点。经过统计与分析,我们发现一种特殊的“爆天量”,牛股的天量往往在主升浪行情的初期和中期,其后 股价创新高的概率反而非常大。
    具体方法如下:
    三个条件:1当日(T日)股票换手率达到29%以上;
    2当日收阳线;
    3当日股价创下近期新高。
    统计结果:该股票在其后的10天左右时间内会创下新高,成功概率为85%。 
    说明:(1)新股上市第一天不列入统计范围。
    (2)2月15日-2月18日期间,由于股市太过火爆,共有11只股票单日换手率达29%以上,按 以上三个条件所选定的案例成功概率只有50%,故不予考虑。即当股市特别火爆时,该方法需要另加条件才能奏 效。
    以下是统计数据,统计时间:1999年1月1日至2000年6月30日,满足条件共有34个。见表 1和表2。
    前文谈的是T日收阳线的例子,那么收阴线的情况又如何呢?下面就将三个条件之一的收阳线改为收阴线 ,来看看情况如何。见表3和表4。单从以上的统计数据看,如果T日收阴线,案例成功的概率并不高,只有58 .3%。但是经过我们进一步的统计分析,发现失败的例子有一个共同的特点,那就是T日的振幅都很大,除鞍钢 新轧(0898)外,振幅都大于14%;同时在成功的例子中,T日的振幅都小于14%。如果我们重新设立条 件:1.T日换手率大于29%;2.T日创下近期新高,3.T日收阴线,4.T日振幅小于14%。满足以上 四个条件之后,如果我们在T+1日以收盘价买入,那么只有一个案例是失败的,成功的概率高达8 7.5%。
    在以上的条件中,我们都提到T日要创下阶段性新高,为什么呢?经过统计发现,T日没有创下阶段性新 高的例子共有4个,但是全以亏损告终。见表5。因此投资者在运用天量法则时,要千万关注该股在放出天量时, 是否创出了阶段性新高,这将直接决定法则的成功率。
    建立新的实战法则的最终目的还是为了盈利,而天量法则的关键在于设计安全的买点。买点设计的正确与 否将直接关系到整个*作方案的成败。经过统计与分析,天量法则成功的案例共有36个(包括当日虽收阴线,但 后市仍有较大获利空间的案例)。其中在T+1日盘中一度跌破T日收盘价的案例为29个,比例高达80.6% ,而该类个股在T日至形成阶段性顶部之间的最低价一般出现在T+1日,共有22个案例,占61.1%。因此 运用天量法则介入个股的最佳日期是T+1日,而在T+1日介入的最佳时机就是跌破T日收盘价之时。因此我们 提出的*作方案是当T+1日股价跌破T日收盘价时,投资者可以选择时机半仓介入,然后在下午临收盘前用剩余 的另一半资金全线买入,这样就可以保证投资者在买入时承担相对较小的风险。
    此外,据统计T+1日收出阴线的案例共计14个,占比例为40%。然而这14个案例中12个第二天 都收出了阳线,而且后市都创出了新高。也就是说当T+1日,股价以阴线报收的话,对于投资者来说是一个机会 ,如果在收盘前果断介入的话,第二天获利的可能性相当大。
    综上所述,天量法则是一种经数理统计得出的方法,是以科学论证得出的结论,具有较强的实战意义。此 外,天量法则还可以从逻辑上得到证明,某天突然爆天量,换手率能达到29%以上,只能是以下情况之一:(1 )庄家大举建仓,一般发生在行情启动之初,如600654、600102、0953等,既然庄家如此大量进 货,股价连创新高应是指日可待;(2)庄家在中高位换手,这种情况最多。一般是股价在拉升相当幅度后发生宽 幅震荡,主力在清洗浮筹或震荡出货。但是由于当日成交量实在太大,主力必定无法全身而退,故而后市仍将震荡 拉抬。
  无量阴跌的三类情况
  现在很多股票都在无量阴跌,这让大家无所适从,是割肉呢,还是观望等待。现在,柳叶居主人就给大家分析 无量阴跌的三种情况,希望能给大家一些帮助和启发。不过,股市有风险,操作要谨慎,本文仅供参 考。
  很多时候我们会见到大盘或个股呈现出无量阴跌的局面,成交量一低再低,不知何时是地量,指数或股价节节 败退,这种局面到底对将来的行情有何影响呢,许多人心里都没数,股评家们也莫衷一是,于是很多朋友就在迷惘 中一点点悄悄割肉,信心受到巨大打击,个别甚至于深套。那到底怎样来判断无量阴跌行情呢?我想万变不离其宗 ,关键要看无量阴跌前的行情如何,庄家是处于何种状态,然后才可以推断将来的走势,我大致把它 分为三类:
  一、无量阴跌前经过暴炒,有过高位放量或暴涨期间放巨量的,其后市走势不容乐观。不论是大盘还是个股, 其行情总是周而复始,主宰行情的核心力量就是庄家的进出,如果一只股票刚经过庄家的充分炒作,庄家已经全身 而退的话,至少半年内不会有好行情,因此造成股价呈现无量阴跌的局面,因为跌得不急,导致许多人割肉的时机 掌握不好,偶尔也会涨一两天,换上一批套牢者,但总的说来是此跌绵绵无绝期,这是大家最应该警惕的情况,非 短线高手轻易不要去碰此类股票。当然如果经过长期阴跌,股价腰斩犹有过之,到了跌无可跌的地步,然后在低位 止跌后又有放量的迹象,则不妨予以关注,说不定过一段时间新的炒作又将来临。
  二、前期炒作不充分,虽然无量阴跌,仍孕育短线机会。有的庄家炒作股票时由于种种原因未能顺利出货,譬 如与大盘不够同步、自身资金实力出现问题、上市公司不配合、股票基本面出现重大变故、遭遇政策突变、操作水 平欠佳等等,这类庄家总是在寻找时机摊低成本,谋求自救,一旦大盘稍有回暖,就会出现带量上扬的短暂行情。 但按理说无量下跌涨起来应该很轻松,用不着放大量就应该涨上去,所以对待无量下跌一段后又放量上涨的股票一 定要逢高了结,宁可错过也不要成为庄家自救的牺牲品。
  三、前期已在低位,且有庄家吸筹现象,由于大盘形势太差而被迫推迟炒作或干脆借机洗盘,这是无量阴跌股 票中前景最好的,将来必然出现无量上涨的局面,而且一旦突破原有低位平台,还将有较为广阔的上 升空间。
  最后,再提一下某些股票,很长时间没人管,属于纯粹的散户行情,其基调就是无量阴跌,大家就没必要加以 太大的关注了,即使它跟随大盘小涨一把,也不过昙花一现,远不如有人关照的股涨的欢。所以看待无量下跌的股 票首先要分析前期有无庄家炒作,确定有庄家炒作之后再分析庄家是否已顺利出货,最好是赶上庄家刚吸完筹大盘 就变糟的股,趁其休整之机低吸,成本可在庄家之下,持股就相当安全了。
  底部放量出现的三种走势:
  第一种是放量上涨。
  既然股价处于长期低位中,那么绝大部分的筹码肯定已经被高高地套在上面,而且手拿资金准备买进该股的投 资者也一定是凤毛麟角,因此出现大成交量的唯一理由就是残存主力的对倒,为了吸引市场资金的跟进。这里特别 要说明的是,即使该股的基本面突然出现利好,放出的大量也很有可能是主力所为,因为好消息的出台并不会导致 大量的高位套牢盘放血。所以说,底部放量上涨一般都是盘中主力所为,同时也说明该股还有主力没有“死掉”。 如果我们通过长期观察而知道该股只拥有主力而非控盘庄家,那么只要底部的放量并非巨量,后市走强大盘的可能 性还是极大的。如果该股是属于控盘程度较高的庄家,那么其未来走势将难以超过大盘。
  第二种是底部放量下跌。
  市场上对于下跌谈论得比较少,因为下跌无法盈利,paul smith trainers。但下跌却会让我们亏得更多,所以我们同样有必要关注下跌。既然是底部放量下跌,实际上就是突破底部平台以 后的持续性下跌,因此放量的时机是判断的要点。如果刚向下突破就放量(跌幅在5%以内),表明有非市场性交 易的成分,不一定是主力自己的对倒,但可能是新老主力的交班,或者是某张大接单要求主力放盘。不管怎么说, 一开始向下突破就放量至少以后还有回升的希望。如果先是无量向下突破,在连续下跌后出现放量,那么其中会有 不少市场的买单,特别是会有不少短线的抢反弹买单。但这种情况一般可以认定是主力认赔出局,后 市堪忧。
  第三种是盘整放量。
  盘整放量的情况相对复杂。比如大盘一路盘跌,股价应该也是盘跌,但现在依然只是盘整,那就说明有资金在 承接,只要不是特别大的量,表明有主力护盘,但并不一定表明后市一定涨势超过大盘,这还是取决于该主力护盘 的动机和资金状况。如果大盘同样是盘整,那么该股的放量盘整就是主力自己所为了,目的无非是为了吸引市场的 买单。如果量实在是很大,那么也有换主力的可能,不妨仔细观察盘中每一笔的交易,分出端倪。如果大盘回升而 该股盘整放量,那么多数是主力认赔出局。
  对倒现象
  对倒:指的是主力与主力之间通过协商,一方把筹码倒给另一方,通常发生在某一个价位区域,但实际成交的 价格与协议的价格有相当差异.
   对倒就是同时进行自买自卖,属于主力与市场对话的一部分。不过随着市场的发展,以前那种非常明显的对 倒现象现在已经日趋减少,不过本质上的对倒依然还是存在,只不过现在很多对倒手法已经完全合规合法。因此我 们要及时改变思路,对于各种泛对倒的现象要引起足够的重视,以便于我们从更深层次了解主力的意图,更好地与 主力进行盘中的对话。以下是几个现在常见的泛对倒现象。
    现象①:涨停板对倒
    案例:主力将股价推升至涨停,然后用大单封住。随着时间的推移市场会进来一些买单也挂在涨停的价位 ,不过从顺序上来说排在主力单子的后面。这时主力会继续在后面挂上新的买单,同时将前面的买单撤下来——这 样市场的买单就排到前面去了,接着主力自己抛出卖单使市场的挂单成交。
    主力这样做的目的就是绝对保证市场的接单成交,因为这些接单是存在撤单的可能的。不过这样一来主力 的单子又排到了前面,要承担接受市场抛单的任务。主力在这样的运作中并没有自买自卖,所以不是纯对倒,但实 际结果仍然是既买进又卖出,属于泛对倒的范畴。我们曾经在本栏讨论过“封不住的涨停”这一现象,是本案例中 的特例,不过由于没有封住涨停,表明是主力出货。
    现象②:跌停板对倒
    与涨停板对倒相似只是方向相反。
    现象③:小区间震荡
    案例:盘子并不大的个股上下五挡的价位都是大单,市场成交的价格被限制在很小的范围。
    这样大规模的挂单显然是属于主力的非自然市场挂单。主力这样做的目的是给市场一种股价不会马上上涨 或下跌的感觉,这样就可以压制住一些冲动型的市场单子。不过总会有市场的单子出来,所以就形成了主力与市场 在一个很小的价格区间里进行交易的状况。主力的对手单子基本上是市场的单子。
    尽管主力并没有自买自卖,不过这种交易仍然具有纯对倒的本质,因为主力当天在差不多的价格范围内既 买进又卖出,同样属于泛对倒的范畴。
    现象④:瞬间向下砸盘
    案例:下挡接盘明显大于上档挂单,突然出现一笔或者多笔大抛盘,瞬间将下挡接单打掉,随后股价立刻 上涨。由于接单价位的抬高原来被砸掉的接单价位已经消失。
    这种现象本栏分析过,往往是属于主力在推升股价前的一次卖出行为。由于主力在瞬间的砸单之后立刻上 推股价,所以需要打掉上挡压着的卖单,这样就会买进筹码。也就是说在很短的时间内主力还是在既买进又卖出。 尽管不是自买自卖的纯对倒但也属于泛对倒的范畴。
    一般在下挡的挂单中会有主力的接单,那么只要在砸单之前先撤掉自己的接单就可以避免自买自卖的纯对 倒出现。
    以上几种泛对倒现象我们可以在盘中多加注意。由于主力在仓位达到一定的规模以后为了继续推升股价就 时刻会考虑减仓,所以还会有更多的泛对倒现象出现。对于我们来说不但要能够判断出主力是否在进行泛对倒,还 要揣摩主力的意图。主力进行泛对倒的目的通常有三个:一是为了强行提高市场的换手率;二是阶段性减仓;三是 企图全身而退。由于纯对倒买卖数量比较接近而泛对倒的买卖数量差异会比较大,所以研判的重点在于主力最后是 买得多还是卖得多。这对于我们了解主力的意图会很有帮助。
  二、股市在不同时段的量价关系
  多头市场与空头市场的最大区分就是成交总值不同。上升趋势里,投资人购买股票,短期或长期里都可获得利 润,因此激发投资意愿,交易活络,在积极换手下,成交总值亦不断创新记录;下跌趋势里,投资人买进股票后, 再拟卖出时,股价已下跌一段,因此影响买气,交易自然愈趋清淡,成交总值缩小。这种与自然现象中热则胀、冷 则缩类似的结果亦是大户与做手充分使用的手法。
  (1) 多头市场里股价走势为:上升(成交总值增加)→回档(成交总值萎缩)→盘档(再萎缩)→上升。
  (2) 空头市场里股价走势为:下跌(成交总值减少)→反弹(成交值增加)→盘档(成交值减少)→下跌 。
  具体来说,成交总值是测量股市行情变化的温度计,成交总值增加或减少的速度可以推断多空战争规模大小与 股价指数涨跌的幅度。也就是说,成交总值持续扩大,表示新资金不断涌入股市,是推动股价上涨的 原动力。
  成交总值与加权股价指数涨跌有密切关系。
  (1) 股价指数与成交值之间关系正如滚雪球一样,欲使股价指数上升,成交值必须持续增加。
  (2) 多头市场里,每股行情起点成交值均不大,随着指数上升而扩大,直至不能再扩大时,股价指数便开始下跌,也就 是最高成交值对应着最高股价指数。有时股价指数虽然继续上升,成交值却无法再出现更高成交值,上升行情极可 能在数日内结束,与“先见量、后见价”相印证。也有时在长期下跌行情末期出现巨额转账交易,使成交值突然大 增,股价指数则自此上升一段。
  (3) 空头市场里,下跌的每段行情成交值均有急剧萎缩现象,显示买气衰退,股价指数愈趋下跌,直至成交值不能再萎 缩,跌势便告一段落,也就是最低成交值对应最低股价指数。有时股价指数虽然继续下跌,成交值却不再见萎缩时 ,下跌行情即将结束。
  (4) 最高成交值与最低成交值视当时股市人气聚散而定,没有固定标准与公式。只能从多头市场或空头市场规模推测未 来的潜力
  另解释
  成交量和未平仓合约量的变化会对期货的价格产生影响,期货价格的变化也会引起成交量和未平仓合约量的变 化。
  (1)成交量、未平仓合约量增加,价格上升,表示新买方正在大量收购,近期内价格还可能上 涨。
  (2)成交量、未平仓合约量减少,价格上升,表示卖空者大量补货平仓,价格短期内向上,但不久将可能回 落
  (3)成交量增加,价格上升,但未平仓合约量减少,说明卖空者和买空者都在大量平仓,价格 马上会下跌。
  (4)成交量、未平仓量增加,价格下跌,表明卖空者大量出售合约,短期内价格还可能下跌,但如抛售过度 ,反可能使价格上升。
  (5)成交量、未平仓合约量减少,价格下跌,表明大量买空者急于卖货平仓,短期内价格将继 续下降。
  (6)成交量增加、未平仓合约量和价格下跌,表明卖空者利用买空者卖货平仓导致价格下跌之际陆续补货平 仓获利,价格可能转为回升。
  以上关系还需结合不同的价格形态做进一步的具体分析: (1)价稳量增:期价经过一段下跌之后下跌幅度缩小,甚至止跌转稳,在低位盘整,成交量明显的递增,表示低 位接手转强,为阳转信号。
  (2)价量齐升:成交量扩增,价格回升,量价同步走高,逆时针方向曲线由平转上或由左下方向右转时,进 入多头位置,为最佳买入时机。
  (3)价涨量稳:成交量扩增至高水准后,维持于高档,不在急剧增加,但期货价格仍继续涨升,此时逢期货 价格回档时,宜加码买入。
  (4)价涨量缩:价格继续上涨,涨势趋缓,但成交量不在扩增,走势开始有减退的迹象,此时价位已高,宜 观望,不宜追高枪涨。
  (5)价稳量缩: 价格在高位盘整,已难创新高,成交量无力扩增,甚至明显减少,此为警戒信号,心中应该有卖出的准备,应卖出 部分持仓。
  (6)价跌量缩:价格从高位滑落,成交量明显的减少,量价同步下降,逆时针方向曲线的走势由平转下或由 右上方朝左传时,进入空头倾向,此时应卖出手中持仓。
  (7)价快跌量小:这是主跌阶段,价格下跌速度很快,市场上无人接盘,是空头为主的市场,应该持续的卖 出。
  (8)价跌量增:成交量开始递增,价格虽然下跌,但跌幅缩小,表示谷底已近,此时多头不宜在往下追杀, 空头也不宜放空打压,应该观望,伺机回补
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333926 2008 年 03 月 08 日 13:33 Reading (loading. ..) Comments (0) Category: Miscellaneous world Kan
China Southern Airlines plane crash black box recording

11 years after the return, over the last 12 minutes of recording audio content.
[00:00.00] China Southern Airlines, Shenzhen air crash black box the final 12 minutes of 5.8 audio: May 8, 1997,

[00:04.96] a company in Shenzhen China Southern Airlines CZ3456 (Chongqing to Shenzhen) Flight

[00:07.96] The Boeing 737 landed at the airport in Shenzhen Huangtian disintegration. The first aircraft grounded

[00:11.96] heard the captain shouted: ,],[

[00:16.96] aircraft circling in the air after landing the second time only to hear the co-pilot back shouted:

[00:18.46] ! down to 1500

[00:24.64] First Officer: I have reduced 1500

[00:30.88] nearly into the station: in front of a plane closer

[ ,],[

[00:42.26] First Officer: Yeah

[00:48.89] to lift the autopilot alarm

[00:53.94] First Officer: 308

[01:02.76] to contact Guangzhou 160.35

[01:08.29] First Officer: I ask the reduced height

[01:18.45] First Officer: It is now heading 135

[01:24.29] First Officer: I see on the runway in front of bad weather

[01:29.20] nearly into the station: you are immediately reduced to 900

[01:31.48] machine Length: 3456 to establish ILS

[01:33.97] co-pilot: 3456 Contact Tower, 6855 Goodbye

[01:36.71] Captain: Note height

[01 : 41.00] Captain: Note the rain large

[01:45.97] Tower: CZ3456

[01:49.30] Captain: Echo ~ ~ now established blind drop the

[01:54.59] First Officer: 330 degrees

[02:03.12] co-pilot: 3456 is now 6,000 feet altitude

[02:11.92] co-pilot: see the airport lights

[02:16.08] Captain: Wait a minute later put ah ~

[02:18.16] Length: throttle pre-bit

[02:25.55] machine Length: Note yaw

[02:36.50]] co-pilot: 3456 saw the introduction of light

[02:47.05] Length: decision height

[02: 49.49] the co-pilot: Note yaw ~ ~ ~ ~ good

[03:00.63] First Officer: glide path is too low

[03:04.61] engine room alarm (low glide path)

[03:06.35] First Officer: Note the speed

[03:06.75] Captain: Speed fine

[03:08.75] Length: bigger nothing

[03:12.54] First Officer: left point

[03:18.02] Length: with live points (stick )~~~~~ with live (the accelerator)

[03:20.97] The first touchdown

[03:22.28] engine room alarm (more than overload)

[03:23.62] First Officer: throttle! fuel door!

[03:25.26] The second touchdown

[03:27.90] First Officer: fuel door missed! fuel door missed!

[03:28.28 ] The third touchdown

[03:31.08] First Officer: fuel door missed! fuel door missed!

[03:33.25] cabin alarm (main warning - can no longer normal aircraft Flight - configuration destruction)

[03:40.69] Captain: Rod loss of weight of the

[03:45.84] Length: fuel door!

[03: 52.64] Captain: Check, right?

[04:34.68] Captain: Re perimeter

[04:49.34] engine room alarm (hydraulic system)

[04:56.08] Captain: Do not take too big!

[05:03.83] co-pilot: 3456 missed Rights

[05:05.96] Tower: see

[05:07.30] co-pilot: You sound great point

[05:14.78] You tell me course, I do not see you

[05:18.34] Captain: Now to die, too much rain

[05:21.03] Length: up 1200

[05:26.90] co-pilot: You look at my position, 3456

[05:45.05] co-pilot: the right, turn to your right

[05:49.02] Length: left the weather is not good

[05:57.74] First Officer: I now After a rendezvous point for left

[06:02.61] Tower: Please tell me the location of

[06:06.18] First Officer: I now turn left into the triangular pull ~ ~ ~ ~

[06:32.35] Tower: you are here?

[06:36.28] co-pilot: three edge

[06:40.39] another flight Aircraft: I can not avoid you, height 6000, from 14 km

[06:49.91] First Officer: I am now an emergency!!

[06:51.91] First Officer: I have an emergency situation, you ask them to give way to me!

[07:46.72] Tower: frequency 111.3

[08:11.94] Tower: CZ3456, you ask them to give way to me! I am now Emergency!!

[08:20.15] cabin alarm (landing gear)

[08:47.28] Tower: 3456 emergency evacuation after landing

[08:49.28] First Officer: I see, I have now informed the

[08:56.73] First Officer: I now sub-round

[09:04.34] Tower: What position are you now?

[09:10.46] First Officer: I now highly 1200

[09:16.76] co-pilot: I'm north of the airport, in the left

[09:21.78] Tower: I have to give way to all aircraft you

[09:38.64] Captain: Where is the runway, I have not found

[09:45.08] Here is a broken record

[10:09.54] engine room alarm (flaps)

[10:11.94] Captain: Do not drive this, not drive it!

[10:16.05] Tower: No other aircraft, and both sides of the runway clear

[10:25.82] co-pilot: The navigation station ah

[10:29.88] Captain: I saw the runway of the

[10:59.72] Tower: CZ3456, the ground ready to fire engines, ambulances

[11:03.59] Tower: You can use the 15 runway!

[11:08.11 ] Captain: I take back land

[11:08.45] Tower: Yes! floor in front of the unit reflects the good weather north of the south side of Five rain

[11:22.20] machine Length: Not a good situation Ah!

[11:50.49] Captain: Note height A

[12:06.01] First Officer: high altitude, right?

[12:08.88] co-pilot: the runway has to head out!

[12:15.72] cabin emergency alert (sink rate)

[12:18.25] cabin emergency alarm (pull up)

[12:23.99] First Officer: drop rate is too high

[12:26.66] First Officer: high rate of pull-down !!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[12:27.65] rattle ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ plane crash)





Shenzhen,lebron james shoes, Chongqing, 1997 crash MP3





China Southern Airlines 97, Shenzhen 5.8 air crash black box cockpit voice recorder (with a MP3 file downloads real + shock)

1997 年 5 8, a China Southern Airlines Shenzhen CZ3456 (Chongqing to Shenzhen) Boeing 737 flights in Shenzhen Huangtian airport landing disintegration. Grounded aircraft for the first time heard the captain shouted: Fuel door, go around! ......After the aircraft circled in the air, landing back the second time only to hear the co-pilot shouted:

hear the last words of the co-pilot ...
chilling ...
flight simulation, but I also frequently Hold Up ...
normal drop should be 400. . . 300. . . 200. . . 100. . . 50. . . 40,30,20,nba basketball shoes,10. .


1.
the day after the situation, Unit 2925 19:45 from Chongqing Jiangbei Airport, is expected to arrive in Shenzhen Huangtian Airport at 21:30, 21:07 and Shenzhen Airport Approach Control to establish contacts the normal procedure to Runway 33 approach. 21:17 to establish contact with the control tower. Tower told the crew 21:18:07 Unit report Taiwan plane too close near the control tower saw the aircraft landing lights, but light rain is not clear, the ground radar display, aircraft flight path, down a high degree of normal. 21:19:33 southern end of the runway the aircraft for the first time grounding the aircraft after the jump triple jump, and then go around. Go around and turn left up to 1,200 meters, the tower opened to remind the crew answering machine, but has not been shown on the secondary radar. 21:23:57, the unit reported in the triangular position, requiring avoidance of other aircraft, 21:23:40, avoid other aircraft crew asked again, and reports on Tower has been told to avoid other aircraft. 21:24:58 requirements fall to the ground crew with the fire engines, ambulances, the tower told the crew have been prepared. Then they turn the plane around and landed south of the report prepared, agreed that the south tower floor, and told of Unit 2925, 21:28:30 landing, after landing the aircraft disintegrated on fire.
2. on-site inspection situation
(1) for the first time from south to north landing. Into the runway, the southern tip of 388.5 meters from the runway and found the first small piece of tire debris. 502 meters from the tip of the runway and found the first piece of metal debris. 561 meters from the tip of the runway, the runway centerline 25 meters left and found a 54 cm long, 28 cm wide, was torn like tire pieces. 570 meters from the tip of the runway centerline 20 meters left, that piece before the landing gear wheel revolvers, long 46 cm, width 21 cm. 580.5 m from the tip of the runway, near the center line, it was discovered the main round of the anti-magnetic hysteresis brake valve. The southern end of 801 meters from the runway centerline near the nose landing gear found in the inner left wheel hub (irregular broken edges). The above description, the plane landed front wheel first ground, the left front wheel burst, debris scattered on the runway.
from the tip of the runway from the 388-801 m range,lebron james vii, road surface have more rivets (mostly cut marks), and a small amount of metal, hose, clips and other fallout. Above that, the first landing,cheap lebron shoes, the aircraft was damaged.
(2) aircraft to go after the second landing from north to south. Into the runway, the runway from the north end of 427.2 meters, 4.5 meters at the center line on the right, there are clear signs of grazing the lower fuselage. This marks the right front, right side from the centerline of the fuselage scratches have the right engine at 4.8 m grazing traces. Traces in the body to the lower left front rub, scratch from the fuselage center line of 4.9 meters at the left side of the engine grazing have left traces. 441 meters from the runway at the northern end, near the center line pavement three distinct grooves rub, rub the deepest trough 2 cm and a maximum width of 12 cm. The investigation has revealed that three slots are rubbing the left landing gear wheel (left), towing lug and wheel steering actuator touchdown to draw the grooves.
wipe the aircraft, the drag of about 600 meters after sliding disintegration. Central and right-wing aircraft after severely damaged edge, where the northern end of the runway from 1,200 meters, or side of the runway centerline near 105.7 m before the landing gear, flaps film, slats debris, luggage rack, passenger seat, etc. fallout; body length of 12 meters in front,nba shoes, local damage, but no burn marks are rolling, head north, local deformation of the cockpit, instrument panel and central console has a lot of mud, landing gear lever in neutral position, the nose lower depression, lower back bending weather radar antenna. The northern end of the runway from 1370 meters, 79.4 meters at the right side of the runway centerline, with a more complete aft fuselage. The left main landing gear and right engine left scattered on the runway, the left engine at the bottom of serious wear, the fan blade is broken off, part of the bend. Right main landing gear scattered on the runway on the right. Inside the right main landing gear tire burst, severe wear and tear the bottom of the right engine. At about 1230 m × 250 m within the wreckage and scattered material distribution center circle to the north of the runway pavement, and both sides of the grass.
3. the flight crew technical and physical condition
(1) technical conditions
Captain: Lin Yougui (left seat), male, born in July 1960, the weather criteria: 1 / 2. 12738:08 hours total flight time, including time of 9084:51 hours of radio operator, driver time to 3654:12 hours.
the fly model: TB-20 (120 小时), Y-7 (52:14 hours)
is Aircraft Type: Boeing 737-300 flight 3482:04 hours (22 hours solo flight)
1996 年 12 月 29 Japanese technical inspection and approval.
co-pilot: Comte new (right seat), male, born in April 1952, the weather criteria: 1 / 2. 15537:01 hours total flight time, including mechanics time 11203:25 hours, the driver time to 4334:36 hours.
the fly model: TB-20 (130 hours), Cheyenne (36 hours)
is Aircraft Type: Boeing 737-300 flight 4158:36 hours (88 hours solo flight)
1996 on December 25 qualifying technical inspection.
Observer: XIAO Rong, male, born in July 1948, the total flight time: 5179:53 hours, the Boeing 737-300 was 123:43 hours only on the simulator training. The last technical inspection time: April 18, 1997.
(2) permit conditions
Lin Yougui, driver's license is valid until November 1997, medical certificate valid until October 1997;
Comte new driver's license is valid until July 1997, physical examination certificate is valid until October 1997;
XIAO Rong, driver's license is valid until April 1998, medical certificate valid until September 1997;
(3) physical health of the crew
1997 Conclusions are flying pass annual physical examination. The pre-flight crew members according to the provisions of the attendance before the examination, 8 hours before the flight crew was not found drinking alcoholic beverages and medications. Cockpit Voice recording through the analysis and understanding of the crew with the crew, flight crew members in the body without exception, excluded unit air disability.
4. weather and communications, navigation equipment security situation
Shenzhen terminal weather forecast: at 17:00 on May 8 ~ 9 May 02:00,170 degree wind 7 m / s, visibility 6,000 meters, weak shower, the sky clouds 1,500 meters, sometimes 15 m / s wind, the wind variable, sometimes 1,500 meters visibility, strong thunderstorms, the cloud amount of 5 to 7 300 m, the amount of 3 to 4 cumulonimbus 900 meters, 1,200 meters cloud sky.
16:40 Dangerous weather thunderstorms occur, please note that the units. issued a revised forecast
16:50:
170 degree wind 7 m / s, gusts 15 m / sec, variable wind direction, visibility 1500 meters, has a strong thunderstorm, cloud amount of 1 240 m 2, 5 ~ 7 the amount of cloud 300 meters, 3 to 4 900 meters the amount of cumulonimbus, the sky clouds 1,200 meters.
18:00 Dangerous weather unit.
21:00 Weather Fact:
290 degree wind 7 m / sec, visibility 1,500 m, the direction of runway 33 runway visual range 1400 m, in the shower, the amount of 1 to 2 cumulonimbus 1,200 meters, 5 7 amount of cloud 1,200 m, temperature 23 ℃, dew point 23 ℃, market pressure 1010HPA. Selected
21:33 Weather:
240 degree wind 7 m / s, visibility 2000 m, in rain, low cloud amount of 1 to 2 210 meters, the amount of 3 to 4 cumulonimbus 1,200 meters, cloud amount of 5 to 7 1200 meters, temperature 22 ℃, dew point 22 ℃, market pressure 1010HPA.
call recording by listening to ground and air, watching the radar video, access to such information, confirmed at the time communications, navigation, radar and other security equipment work properly; weather, airport open standards compliance.
5. aircraft and engine condition
(1) Aircraft
Model: B737-300B
Manufacturer: Boeing
registration number: B-2925
factory number: 27288
Release Date: February 24, 1994, February 28, 1994 in Shenzhen, to May 7, 1997 flight 8457:53 hours.
Airworthiness 证号: AC0783
Nationality Registration No: NR0940
station license number: 95? 477
(2) Engine
Model: CFM-56-3CI
factory : CFMI company
number: 857794
from right to left 857 792 7 May 1997, left hair flying 8457:53 hours, the right hair flying 8457:53 hours.

3) documents,zoom kobe v, data checking
AD: As of May 7, 1997 only, the completion of all airworthiness directives.
-time control control: all are in the period when the use of control
period, no super-life use cases.
keep the project: to May 8, 1997 plane crash before the project and to retain an unqualified failure.
Aircraft Maintenance Inspection in: from July 8, 1996 to April 29, 1997, has completed the review 2C 1, 1A-12A review of the 1, no major faults and major repairs.
(4) checks the wreckage of the fuselage
: In addition to the rear fuselage relatively intact (bottom friction marks), the other all the damage.
wings: the left wing tip was no serious damage than, the rest have all been burned, the right wing tip defect, before and after the edge are burned out.
Engines: Left Engine oil filter, oil filter clean and normal, most of the fan blades broken or bent. Loss of right engine fuel filters, oil filters clean and normal, most of the curved blade. Two engines scrapped.
landing: left landing gear: two main wheels in place, the wheel broken, the outer well.
the right landing gear: two main wheels in good condition, pillars of the outer cylinder compression damping in the end, and struck roots within the cylinder, there are traces of collision.
nose gear: retractable actuator rod off, wheel steering actuator rod broken, revolvers off, the right tire burst.
decoding by checking and flight data analysis, before the accident, aircraft, engines and systems in a state of airworthiness. Fuel, lubricating oil passing the tests.
6.
aircraft loading and center of gravity of this situation are set out the maximum amount of flights available to 14,248 kg. A total of 65 passengers (including 64 adults, baby 1), weight 4616 kg; loaded 58 bags, weighing 750 kg; loading cargo 29, weight 554 kg; loading message 13, 12 kg. Total load 5932 kg or more. Compared with the maximum available payload, load 8316 kg.
aircraft loaded in accordance with no oil center of gravity should be at 8.5%? 28%, the actual was 17%. Takeoff weight of 7.5% should be the focus? 28%, actual 17.2%, the center of gravity are in the best position to meet the requirements.
thus proved that there is no business of overloading the machine and load balance.
7. unlawful interference
(1) according to the scene, interviewed witnesses and found, before landing the aircraft found no fire or fire, you can rule out the possibility of fire after the landing.
(2) the flight of all passengers, baggage and cargo are required for a security check and found no prohibited items, exclude the possibility of inflammable and explosive dangerous goods installed.
(3) by extracting samples for testing and found no explosives on the wreckage residues, but also did not find traces of an explosive formed.
(4) by visiting some of the survivors of the crew members and passengers, to exclude acts of unlawful interference with aircraft flying there.
8. witnesses to reflect the situation
(1) At that time the aircraft on the tarmac crew then reflected, aircraft landing from south to north the rain very, very close. When the aircraft to go after landing from north to south, heavy rain, it was dark and visibility is poor, high altitude aircraft, speed, big, sinking fast.
(2) According to 3 minutes before the plane landed in Shenzhen Airlines Flight 822 captain reflected: Shilong radar point of view there is a flat state to the
According to the machine 5 minutes after the first ground floor of the Air 1305 flight crew reflected in terms of the airport from the south end of the radar thunderstorms, heavy rain cut into the encounter after the blind down, saw the runway 800 feet out of the cloud, rain is relatively large, As water on the runway, landing lighting is not good, can not see the ground, only to see the runway lights * close rate to control aircraft.
(3) 2925 crewman reflect: the first ground, sitting on the door of the three flight attendants after the seat was broken and the aircraft frame the central 17,18 ranked Lee raised arched, raised floor of the plane split, window deformation, part of the roof off, the cabin burning smell, instant power, cabin luggage rack some of the items after the drop.
Analysis
(1) 2925 Unit five-sided approach in the process, before the decision height, aircraft attitude, flight path, glide path to maintain all normal, but the speed is too large (142.5 nautical miles / when normal speed of 136 nautical miles / hours). Unit introduced the report to see light, then they reported seeing the runway. Decision height, because the aircraft was flying in heavy rain, the unit decided to
the night flying experience heavy rain, poor visibility, runway, water, lighting is not good, to see the ground is not clear. In this case, the unit did not go around to take decisive measures to break the rules, continue to approach descent, lost the initiative, delaying the timing, which is the main reason causing the abnormal landing, and the ultimate cause of the accident's cause.
(2) when the aircraft is too close to the station after the height of 170 feet, the cockpit of a that
height of 50 feet into the runway, due to Ground (stop Boeing 737 degree angle of -0.79 to -1, according to data record decoding data, grounded in the attitude of the aircraft between -1.4 to ten 1.7). 4 seconds before the aircraft ground decreased rate of 9? 3 feet / second, grounded vertical overload of 2.49G, and produce the first jump, the aircraft damaged.
aircraft grounded the first 2 to 3 seconds, cockpit voice recording has been called Too late to see the pavement, there is no ground to maintain the correct posture is a hard landing caused the aircraft the direct cause of jumping.
(3) aircraft, the first jump, the height of 5 feet, grounding vertical overload 1.9G, not determined to close the throttle unit. N1 RPM increases and decreases irregularly, the same time, putting action. The disposal of the error, resulting in continuous production of the aircraft and two jumps. The second jump 7 feet, grounding vertical overload 2.54G, the third jump 13 feet. Containing three successive jumps and more than cause serious damage to the aircraft structure.
(4) plane after the third jump as high altitude, coupled with the night rain, the unit has not identified the aircraft in case of damage to the program around.
the damage control system, complex flight, the aircraft to 183 sea miles / h speed, the small elevation of 2 degrees off the ground (the aircraft off the ground, the crew felt the stick is . Serious damage to the aircraft after the crew go around and give a second landing potential problems.
(5) missed, the cockpit a Aircraft damaged after two laps in the sky, the unit decided to close the reverse landing north to south. Due to heavy rain has not stopped, the aircraft control system failure (the change in the steering column and the elevator deflection angle obviously does not match the large bar, a small elevator in the yaw angle), although the crew pull the stick before landing in the end, but did not change the aircraft large angle is bent posture, the last aircraft is still under the 7.56 degree angle of depression, 227.5 sea miles / h speed, the decrease rate of 41 feet per second, with 3.2 degrees hit the ground after the disintegration of the left slope, fire.
accident concluded in the final approach the aircraft
encountered heavy rain, the unit not see the pavement in case of violation of the provisions of the blind down; the judge allowed a high degree, resulting in the ground plane did not maintain the correct posture, causing heavy landing jumps, combined with the captain disposal error is caused by the direct cause of major accidents. Missed, due to the aircraft has been seriously damaged, part of the control system failure, the unit can not control the landing attitude, so that the second aircraft landed, taken off the depression of the touch the ground at high speed, causing the disintegration of the aircraft crashed. This is a man-made causes of major accidents.
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