咱们真信任海内花费不足吗

咱们真信任海内消费不足吗?
张军
舛误反复一千遍就成了真谛.我们今天在经济领域有很多似是而非的命题,因为不断被重复,长此以往就成为定论 了,大家也就都相信了.这几年说中国的消费需求不足就是一个典型故事.现在,不仅媒体上天天都在重复着这样 的舆论,甚至很多官厅经济学家和政府官员也都认同和接受了这个似是而非的断定,red wing crocks,相信中国的消费占GDP的比重过低.今天,从上到下仿佛有了一个共鸣,中国经济的增长非要靠扩大最终消费 需求才有前途.这个论断已经在前未几还写进了中心经济工作会议的报告中.
我们真的相信中国的消费需求不足吗?很多人会拿出国际参照值作为证据.例如,很多人发表文章都无一例本地提 到,消费占GDP的比重,asics kayanos,世界的平均值是70%,发达国家是75%,而根据《中国统计年鉴2008》提供的2007年的数据,中国 事48.8%.而且这个占比还在逐年下降.摩根士丹利亚洲区主席史蒂芬b罗奇曾在《财经》上发表文章提到" 2007年,中国消费占GDP的比例跌至历史最低点36%".而渣打银行有限公司研究部最近发表的研讨报告 说,根据它们的测算,中国"2009年,消费占GDP的36%".不晓得罗奇的数字是否包括了政府消费在内 .不外,即使把政府消费考虑进来,那年的最终消费率也不超过GDP的一半.总之,正像有些境外媒体所说的那 样,中国的消费在其国民经济中所占的比重在"世界各大经济体中可能是最低的".
我们先不探讨中国的消费支出(以及对应的投资)在数据和统计上的潜在问题.试想一下,如果世界消费占比的均 匀值是70%,中国能够如斯大幅度地偏离这个平均值而经济竟然不出问题吗?长期以来,我们早已习惯于用"中 国特点"来看待中国经济,绝不费劲地接收那些似是而非的统计描写,而全然忘却了经济运行的个别法则和原理. 不错,各个经济体之间在良多反应经济运行的指标上会存在差别,但从情理或逻辑上它们不该过火地偏离这些指标 的均值.假如我们相信只有我们的经济可以是个例外或者可以不同凡响,那十之八九该是我们过于自负了.经济世 界该不这么回事.
可是,离谱的事件就这样仍是产生了.从国度公然的统计数据上看,中国的终极消费支出占GDP的比重不仅大大 低于世界的平均值,而且 上世纪90年代中以来,这个占比还连续向下走,平均而言,简直每年降落1个百分点.三十年前,在改造开放初 期,中国的最终消费占GDP都在60%以上,而直到90年代中,这个比率都基础稳固在60%强 .
那么,最终消费占GDP的比重怎么可能在90年代中之后像过山车一样忽然开端下冲了呢? 到目前为止,经济学家自己还没有更好的说明.既然统计上显示最终消费占GDP的比重持续下降了,人们天然就 会从那些束缚家庭消费开支的收入上去寻找谜底了,究竟统计上显示政府的消费支出占GDP的比重并没有下降. 于是,当初风行的解释便是,由于收入调配的不公和差距不断拉大,居民消费的开支呈现了减缓的趋势.2009 年7月3日,在北京召开的首届"寰球智库峰会"上,中国国家统计局局长马建堂就公开表现,sale supra,收入差距的拉大是影响消费占比降低的主要因素.
但这个解释面临很多问题.收入差距扩大不仅自身存在一个定义含混和度量上的问题,而且它只是一个对于相对收 入的度量,并不反映相对收入的变化趋势.另外,从收入差距上解释消费占比的下降还面临另外一些问题,你必需 假设家庭的大部门消费需求不是刚性的.而面临更多的刚性消费支出名目应该是一个低收入国家的居民消费需求的 典范特点.实际上,用收入差距的扩大来解释的应该是居民储蓄率的下降趋势才对.
90年代之后,由于体系改革和局部的市场化,原因由政府开支或企业包办的基础教育、医疗和住房开始部分进入 市场,居民家庭也因此开始承当这部分的支出义务.由于这些开支是居民的刚性需求开支,因此部分市场化之后, 居民在这些方面上的消费开支只会大幅度和持续地增加而不是不断减少.
以住房这个中国家庭十年来最大的消费开支项目为例,现有的统计系统处置居民住房支出的办法是存在严峻缺点的 .依据国家统计局核算司司长彭志龙供给的数据,2008年中国居民自有住房消费占当年居民消费的7.4%. 如果加上居民租房消费,居民全体住房消费占当年居民消费支出的7.9%.我相信,这个数据重大低估了中国居 民住房消费开支的真是累赘.低估这个负担的一个重要原因来自于对中国居民的自有住房的所谓"推断租金"(i mputed rent)没有得到恰当的估量和统计.在公民账户系统中,居民购置住房的巨额开支不能被纳入当期消费开支的 范围,从而居民对自购自有住房的消费开支只能作为隐含开支来处理(因为自己错误自己支付房租).因此,作为 一个核算准则,居民对自有住房的消费开支通常是通过估计"推断租金"来纳入统计的.所谓"推断租金"就是把 一个与该自有住房在品德、大小和地段等很多方面都类似的屋宇在市场上的年租金作为这个自有房屋的参考租金. 可是,由于中国房屋租赁市场很不发达,有关住房房钱的材料严峻匮乏,的确很难获得恰当公道的推断租金数据. 因此,在我们的统计中,中国城乡居民每年的自有住房消费开支实际上是按本钱法计算的,也就是居民的自有住房 消费开支即是当期发生的房屋维修支出、折旧费以及物业治理费的加总.考虑到中国的自有住房比例 高达90% 这样一个事实,仅仅这部分的居民消费开支就很难不被低估.
实际上,居民住房消费开支的统计存在的问题也同样存在于其它的服务消费的开销范畴.比方在基本教导跟医疗服 务花费方面,因为供应的不足和伟大的需要压力,中国的居民至今依然面临政府管制价(即政府制定或政府审核的 收费)与黑市或灰市价(即处所或部分单位本人制订的收费尺度)之间的宏大差距.而由这个差距代表的那局部居 民服务消费开支确定未被纳入官方的统计数据中.
跟着金融业的发展,居民的金融服务消费和保险服务消费开支日益增长,但现有的数据资料十分有限,统计部门多 数情况下只能用借助于一些相干的指标来进行推算.所以,可以预感,相对于产品型的消费开支统计数据,中国居 民的服务型消费支出在统计上被严重低估就不可防止了.即使估计政府消费支出的财政支出数据,也可能只是反映 了财政估算内支出的情况,很难包括政府其他项目标支出范畴.实际上,在政府的财政支出项目名目复杂,统一功 效的支出项目可能疏散在完全不同的种别和科目中,很难将行政事业费的支出数据精确调剂和转换为GDP核算所 须要的数据资料.
我曾经撰文提到,与消费支出数据被低估的情况相似,投资支出的数据被高估的情形也不容疏忽.在中国,大多数 人(包括媒体的记者)是不可能很好地域分固定资产投资完成额与固定资本造成总额这两个概念的.情况经常是, 全社会固定资产投资的实现额往往被简单地作为支出法计算的GDP当中的固定资产形成总额了.这几年,老是许 多人说投资已经占到GDP得60%了,实在这个投资时全社会固定资产投资的完成额,不完整反映按照支出法盘 算的GDP中的固定资产构成总额.我料想,被媒体高度关注的投资占GDP的比重持续回升的这一"不良"景象 ,很大一个起因是投资支出的数据中混淆了一直得到开发和交易的土地的价值.依照通例,土地的交易价值不应当 被包括在GDP的统计中,这是因为用于土地征用和交易的费用并不形成社会的固定资产.然而,我们在统计全社 会固定资产投资完成额中则确实是包括土地征用、购买及拆迁弥补等这些巨大的用度的.但由于它们不增长社会的 固定资产,在固定资本形成总额的统计口径下应将它们从固定资产投资完成额中扣除.
有意思的是,对于住房,居民购买住房的巨额开支不能被纳入当期消费开支,但另一方面,由于"推断租金"的基 础资料不足,居民的住房消费开支则又被低估.这还只是居民服务消费被低估的一个方面.而在投资支出方面,由 于征地、拆迁和土地交易价值的费用越来越大,地方和有关部门在呈文统计数据时常常高估固定资本的形成额.实 际上,按照标准的支出法统计的GDP中,固定资本形成总额占GDP的比重并没有像很多人印象中的那么高,而 且这些年来也没有大幅度地、持续地上升.
因为阅历了打算经济多少十年的统计基础设施的建设,我们有一套比较完美的企业和单位统计讲演系统和组织.这 套组织体系比较合适从产值的角度来核算GDP.因而,时至本日,中国的GDP核算重要还是依附出产法进行的 而且这个核算存在很好的稳定性.绝对而言,用支出法(甚至用收入法)核算GDP的难度就大多了,而且支出法 核算GDP还要依赖对城乡居民的家计抽样考察,这也不是件轻易的事情.在中国,面对和取得企业和行业部门的 产值(包含增添值)数据比拟单一,而要调查失掉各级政府、城乡居民以及各品种型的经济主体的开支数据则复杂 多了.
事实上,很多人在谈到十年来中国的投资和消费相对GDP的变化模式时,实际上他们使用了在定义和口径上并不 一致的数据起源,而且没有去斟酌统计私家部门和公共部门的消费开支的艰苦所导致的扭曲.每当我看到用支出法 核算的GDP以及相应的消费和投资支出的占比数据时,总是心惊肉跳的.
回忆在90年代之前,我们的经济与世界上大多数发展中的经济一样,dolce & gabbana,经济运动和结构还都显得非常简略.国家的统计轨制还敷衍得过来.进入90年代之后,经济不仅稳定增长,而 且构造变更敏捷.农民转化为农夫工的速度和城市化的过程一日千里.农夫的实际收入在明显的增加,政府自20 世纪90年代中期以来对务农农民的减免和补助一劳永逸,对城镇低收入阶层的补贴规模也越来越大,更不必说新 一代消费主义阶层的突起、中产阶层的范围扩展.概言之,我们的经济比其余发展中经济变得复杂多了,而且庞杂 得太快了.我们的统计当局应用的消费和投资支出的分类方式不再能满意经济变化的请求.即便政府的消费支出也 由于分类的层级多少而无奈全面涵盖.怎么去适当和适时地捕获经济的变化,正确描述出经济变化的模式,给我们 的统计当局带来了严格的挑衅.
当然了,对于一个变化迅速的经济而言,这是可以懂得的统计问题和面临的挑战.兴许真正让我觉得好奇的不是一 个可能被过错地组合起来的"占比"最初为什么会涌现,而是这样的"占比"这些年来为什么总是不断地被夸张并 信认为真.
发表于《经济察看报》2009年12月31日

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