u, coupled with portfolioadjustment before a Bund auction on Wednesday, could send Bundyields DE10YT=TWEB back to 3 percent from the current 2.97percent, said Credit Agricole strategist Peter Chatwell.
"To justify the current levels of the market you need adeterioration of the situation to be sustained," Chatwell said.
FEAR TRADE
One trader said the market was probably attaching a 90percent probability for Papandreou to survive and euro zonebonds will probably remain rangebound going into the vote.
WestLB's Leister said a failure could send Bund yields 5-10bps lower in an immediate reaction, while in the longer-run
hot blog , ifU.S. data remains weak, they could test 2.75 percent. However,Greece was unlikely to default in the short term, he said.
"At the end of the day
hot blog , (euro zone) leaders would stillprovide Greece with money ... When politicians are with theirbacks against the wall they come up with a consensus solution,"Leister said.
The broader concern is how big the impact would be on largefringe economies if contagion fears gather momentum.
"If Papandreou fails, the fear trade will be back on again,"Credit Agricole's Chatwell said.
A failure for Spanish yields to find support at the 5.60/72percent levels which held earlier this week could leave Spain"exposed to similar forces which have previously bothered othersouthern European member states," Lloyds strategists said.
Ten-year Spanish yields ES10YT=TWEB were last 5.53percent
louboutin designer shoes particularly thelatter, down 7 bps on the day. Equivalent Greek yieldsGR10YT=TWEB were up 14 bps at 17.80 percent.
Commerzbank strategists recommended a neutral stance forTuesday
hot blog , but said they stood ready to place tightening bets onSpanish and Italian yield spreads over Bunds and outright Bundshorts in case of a "convincing vote" in Papandreou's favour.
* Bunds at highest since January after Italy downgrade
* Italian spread widest since January
* Spanish election
hot blog , Greek uncertainty add to tensions
* Belgium to test sentiment with bond sale
By Kirsten Donovan
LONDON, May 23 - German Bunds rose to theirhighest levels since January on Monday as deepening worries overthe euro zone debt crisis hit risky assets such as stocks andcommodities, giving safe-haven government debt